Posted by Milos Sugovic
I came across
quantitative analysis from 2007 that examines correlation between daily newspaper circulation and monthly unique Web site visitors. The correlation gives a rule of thumb for measuring a newspaper’s success in attracting online readers, and here’s the regression equation:
The picture is straightforward: Newspapers with higher daily circulation also exhibit more unique Web site visitors. No surprise there - as is the case with most empirical research - the popularity of the NYT spills over to NYT.com.
But the bankruptcy of The Tribune is yet another indicator of a growing kink in the paper-digital relationship. With a decrease in newspaper sales and circulation, we see that newspapers and their Web sites are becoming perfect substitutes, not complements. That means users aren’t reading hard copies and then going online for blogs and interactive content, but are turning to the web exclusively. So it’s no surprise newspapers are bellying up or switching to an online-only model.
Having said that, let’s take another look at the equation above: lower circulation is correlated with fewer unique Web site visitors. What happens if newspapers are going out of business? What happens with lower circulation? What if newspapers are only online?
It’s clear the curve is being drastically reshaped as we speak. The empirical question of the day is: what will the new curve look like?
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